Introducing a Certainty Scale: Assessing the Confidence of My Posts

In an effort to provide clarity and transparency in my blog posts, I’m excited to introduce a certainty scale, inspired by a concept I discovered on Gwer.net. This scale helps you understand how confident I am in the information and ideas presented, offering a more nuanced perspective on the content you read here.

Metadata Overview

Before diving into the certainty scale, let’s quickly touch on the other metadata you’ll find on each post:

  • Date: This marks the last meaningful modification to the post, ensuring you know how up-to-date the information is.
  • Tags: These help categorize the content for easier navigation and discovery.
  • Status: This describes the state of completion of the post. It ranges from:
    • Notes: A collection of links, snippets, and preliminary thoughts.
    • Draft: A post with some structure and a coherent thesis but still in development.
    • In Progress: A well-developed draft that’s nearing completion.
    • Finished: A completed post, unless new significant information emerges.

Certainty Scale

The “confidence” tag in each post indicates my subjective probability of how well-supported the ideas are. This scale is adapted from the “Kesselman List of Estimative Words” and is used to express my level of confidence in the essay’s claims and overall ideas. Here’s how it breaks down:

  • Certain: I have high confidence that the information is accurate and well-supported.
  • Highly Likely: There is strong evidence backing the ideas, but some minor uncertainties remain.
  • Likely: The ideas are supported by considerable evidence, though some assumptions or gaps exist.
  • Possible: The information has some support, but significant uncertainties or assumptions are present.
  • Unlikely: There is little evidence supporting the ideas, and many assumptions are necessary.
  • Highly Unlikely: The information is mostly speculative with minimal supporting evidence.
  • Remote: The ideas are extremely speculative with little to no supporting evidence.
  • Impossible: The information is contrary to well-established facts or highly implausible.

Why Use a Certainty Scale?

The purpose of this certainty scale is to provide you with a clear understanding of how confident I am in the information and ideas presented. This transparency helps you make informed decisions about how to interpret and use the content. Even when an idea is speculative or uncertain, it can still be valuable to explore and discuss, especially if it sparks new thoughts or leads to further investigation.

Conclusion

By adopting this certainty scale, I aim to foster a more transparent and informed reading experience. Each post will now include a confidence tag, helping you gauge the reliability of the information and the level of support behind the ideas. I hope this approach enhances your engagement with the content and encourages critical thinking.

Feel free to leave your thoughts and feedback on this new system. Your input is invaluable as I strive to improve the quality and transparency of my blog.